will affect political stability and the fortunes of two of the leading
presidential candidates, deputy prime minister Uhuru Kenyatta and former
cabinet minister William Samoei Ruto.
should be able to run in the presidential polls with their trials pending in
they be ineligible to run.
electoral rules means even more political horse trading than usual.
vote and at least 25% of the vote in half of the 47 counties.
the support of the widest range of ethnic and regional constituencies.
foes to fight on the same ticket.
after the 2007 elections.
and ethnic and clan rivalries over resources – could prove the most disruptive
during and immediately after the March 2013 election.
politics at the Coast.
low-intensity conflicts in outlying districts.
coalitions. On the right is the Uhuru-Ruto marriage.
who fought with Kenyatta’s Kikuyu in the Rift Valley in the 2007 post-election
their claimed role in promoting that violence.
same political bed to the intense bafflement – if not fearsome anger – of their
the Kalenjin, who have switched to backing prime minister Raila Odinga – now
endorsed by veteran Kalenjin leader and ex-President Daniel arap Moi.
twists: such is the loyalty to him and the memory of his father as Kenya’s
been the frontrunner in the Kibaki succession race ever since.
uninspiring deputy prime minister Musalia Mudavadi.
breadth of electoral support to win the presidency in the first round.
the Orange Democratic Movement, still the most popular party in the country and
brandishing its tarnished reform credentials.
vice-president Kalonzo Musyoka and even Mudavadi’s United Democratic Front.
they should support a man facing an international trial for financing political
leaders at national (president and parliament) and county level (governors,
senators and women’s representatives).
decision-making have moved away from the old centralised executive presidency
to the 47 counties across the country.
national level, it seems many of the leading politicians have yet to take
seriously this important change in political structure
Source: The Africa Report